SURVEY: Labour Leads in Marginal Seats

British Labour Party leader Ed Miliband
British Labour Party leader Ed Miliband
British Labour Party leader Ed Miliband

A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. Labour currently has 41% of the vote in these battleground constituencies, an increase of five points since June, with the Conservatives on 30%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and UKIP on 17% (up from 3% in 2010).

Conservative: 30% (-1)

Labour: 41% (+5)

Liberal Democrat: 6% (-1)

UKIP: 17% (n/c)

Other: 6% (-2)

(Figures in brackets show changes since June)

Despite Labour’s large lead in these battleground seats, more people say they would rather have David Cameron as Prime Minister than Ed Miliband (46%), 33% say they would rather Ed Miliband. Six in 10 (59%) people say that Ed Miliband puts them off voting for Labour, this includes two in five (38%) people that say they will vote for Labour.

David Cameron’s premiership appears divisive in the marginals, with as many saying he has been a good Prime Minister (41%) as saying he has been bad (43%). While he receives the backing of his party (84% of Conservatives say he has been a good PM) and the Liberal Democrats (55%), 56% of UKIP voters say he has been a bad Prime Minister as do 67% of Labour voters.

Despite Boris Johnson’s popularity, more residents in marginal constituencies think he would make a bad Prime Minister (43%) than think he would be good (32%).

In the event of a Coalition after the next election, the Liberal Democrats are preferred to UKIP as the junior partner by 42%, compared to 35% who would rather see UKIP in a Coalition. Conservatives appear split on the choice of a Coalition partner, with 47% preferring the Liberal Democrats and 40% in favour of UKIP.

Half (51%) of the public in the 40 marginal seats say they would never vote for UKIP, even if they could win in their constituency. A third (33%) say they would consider voting UKIP at next year’s General Election.

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes said: “These are the seats where the General Election next year will be won and lost and Labour have opened up a convincing lead. However, despite the polls pointing to a Labour victory, voters in the marginals prefer David Cameron as a Prime Minister to Ed Miliband and the Conservatives will be hoping that is enough to swing enough people back round to back them when it comes to the ballot in May 2015.”


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