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BREXIT: The Good, The Bad and The Unknown

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People take part in a march against the outcome of the recent EU referendum, in London, Britain, July 2, 2016. Around 40,000 people attended the anti-Brexit march after a petition with 4 million signatures was submitted to the parliament, calling for a second referendum.

Alex Littner, Managing Director of Boost Capital, comments on the Brexit imapct on UK economy. The Good, The Bad and The Unknown For Hospitality SMEs

People take part in a march against the outcome of the recent EU referendum, in London, Britain, July 2, 2016. Around 40,000 people attended the anti-Brexit march after a petition with 4 million signatures was submitted to the parliament, calling for a second referendum.
People take part in a march against the outcome of the recent EU referendum, in London, Britain, July 2, 2016. Around 40,000 people attended the anti-Brexit march after a petition with 4 million signatures was submitted to the parliament, calling for a second referendum.

When Britain voted to leave the European Union on June 23, sterling tumbled, and businesses across the UK wondered what it would mean for them. A weak pound may equate to higher costs for importers, happy days for exporters, and more expensive holidays for Brits abroad. But hospitality is one industry experiencing immediate effects, with more foreign visitors taking bargain breaks in Britain, while UK customers rein in their spending.

In fact, Brexit is set to have an impact on hotels, restaurants, pubs, and bars in a number of ways, some positive, some negative. Where can hospitality bosses find the opportunities in this rapidly changing business landscape? And how can they tackle the less welcome challenges?

Attractive for tourists

A fall in the value of the pound after a vote to leave was widely predicted, so it came as no surprise when sterling plummeted to a 31-year low shortly after the referendum. But, one upside is that Britain seems a more attractive and affordable destination to overseas visitors who are getting more pounds for their currency. And there is evidence a Brexit tourism bounce is already taking place.
The number of flights booked to the UK in the week after the vote – June 24 to July 2 – was 9.4 per cent higher than the same time last year, according to Travel consultancy ForwardKeys . This should be a positive development for firms that accommodate, feed, and entertain travellers, so canny hoteliers and restaurateurs will look to actively market themselves to overseas visitors. Don’t wait around – devise a quick hit marketing strategy alongside any existing longer-term plan. Whether it’s using social media, email shots, or promoting the business through third-party platforms, take advantage of the focus on the UK at present.

Domestic doldrums

People take part in a march against the outcome of the recent EU referendum, in London, Britain, July 2, 2016. Around 40,000 people attended the anti-Brexit march after a petition with 4 million signatures was submitted to the parliament, calling for a second referendum.
People take part in a march against the outcome of the recent EU referendum, in London, Britain, July 2, 2016. Around 40,000 people attended the anti-Brexit march after a petition with 4 million signatures was submitted to the parliament, calling for a second referendum.

However, any increased foreign spending must be balanced against an expected drop in domestic customers, many of whom are now expecting a Brexit-related recession. Footfall on the UK high street slowed dramatically in the immediate aftermath of the vote, while polls to gauge consumer confidence also reveal a significant shock effect from the referendum decision. All of this points towards people being less inclined to spend their cash on non-essentials, which would include eating out and weekends away.
As always, make a virtue of your size. Smaller companies are more agile than their larger rivals, and can react to changing circumstances, amending their offering quickly. Hoteliers looking to improve cashflow might think about offering non-refundable packages that give a lower than usual room rate for customers who pay upfront, for example. Food businesses could launch a lunchtime deal on days when trade is typically slow. But all companies in the hospitality realm should increase the frequency of cashflow forecasts to flag up potential problems. Food and drink prices are likely to increase with higher inflation, which makes watching the day-to-day financials more important than ever. Once areas of difficulty are known, they can be addressed, either by cost-cutting, changing suppliers, or taking out bridging finance if a shortfall is on the cards.

Recession lessons

Many hospitality bosses have the wisdom of their experience of the last recession to help them through the uncertainty ahead. The economic downturn of 2008 took a severe toll on the industry, but coincided with extraordinary developments in digital technology affecting how people search for information and make bookings, both in hotels and restaurants. Many companies that embraced technology, including third party booking sites and the consumer review platform Tripadvisor, weathered the storm, and saw some clear benefits.

Third-party aggregator or discounting sites do require careful managing, as they can charge hefty commissions for listings, and the economics don’t work for all businesses. Also, Tripadvisor reviews can be more damaging than brand-building if handled badly. But a good business that gets a buzz around it on the review site can punch well above its weight. Also, customers now actively seek value for money, and are prepared to use technology to shop around for the best deal, so hospitality firms that want to remain relevant should keep up with these new ways of engaging with customers. Those that do it well will be the winners in the long-term.

Hiring headaches

Prime Minister David Cameron addressing a European Council meeting at Brussels
Prime Minister David Cameron addressing a European Council meeting at Brussels

Much has been written about the likely impact of Britain’s withdrawal from Europe in terms of hiring readily available, inexpensive foreign labour. The UK’s bars, restaurants, and hotels are extremely reliant on EU workers who make up a large proportion of the industry’s workforce. The politicians are battling out this sore point of the Leave campaign – how many EU nationals will be allowed to stay in Britain after Brexit comes into effect. But it looks likely there will be fewer cheap, willing recruits to choose from in future.
However, while a settlement with Europe is being agreed – and that could take several years in practice – we remain part of the EU. And there’s every possibility more foreign workers will come to these shores in an attempt to get established here before the rules change. This could provide employers with a hiring opportunity in the medium-term. Plus, existing staff are likely to be more keen to hold onto their jobs in tougher times, which could reduce the industry’s notoriously high employee turnover.

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