A survey predict a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party – but short of 34 seats for majority.
This is due to the recent dramatic growth in Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP). It will bag 38 seats – sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority.
A new experimental UK-Elect forecasting method was used for this prediction, which also shows seats gained by UKIP and the Green Party. Labour has never gained power in Westminster without winning in Scotland.
The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 40%, Lab 29%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
A poll by Ipsos Mori earlier put labour on just 23 per cent in Scotland, which would see them losing all but four of their Scottish MPs, against 52 per cent support for the SNP, which would get 54 Westminster seats. The Scottish Conservatives would lose their one seat, with 10 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems would retain one with 6 per cent, while the Greens polled 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent and others 1 per cent.