The Conservative Party is still on track to win the Newark by-election despite a massive Ukip surge, according to a poll.
But Tory backing is down by 18 percentage points since the 2010 general election, when disgraced former MP Patrick Mercer secured a 16,000 majority.
Meanwhile, Ukip support has soared by 24 percentage points and Labour has gone up by four.
The findings raise the prospect of a nailbiting last week of the campaign, with Mr Farage and his party trying to build on major gains in local and European elections to secure a Commons seat for first time. The Liberal Democrats were on just 5% – 15 percentage points down from four years ago.
Some 72% of those who voted Ukip in last week’s European elections said they would be sticking with the party on Thursday.
_Survation interviewed 606 adults in Newark by telephone on May 27 and 28. Data were weighted to represent the wider population.