March 7, 2022
2 mins read

Nepal economy hurt by China’s undeclared trade embargo

China has restricted issuing visas to Nepali traders; as a result, they were forced to place orders virtually….reports Asian Lite News

Beijing’s ‘undeclared trade embargo’ in the name of COVID containment measures has hurt Nepal’s economy and traders giving rise to concerns regarding the Himalayan nation’s reliance upon China as a trade partner, as an alternative to India, a media report said.

In 2017-18, imports from China were valued at Rs 159.98 billion, up from Rs 129.87 billion in fiscal 2016-17. However, the increased quantum of trade has not helped Nepal as it suffers a huge deficit. Nepal’s trade deficit with China amounts to Rs 232.90 billion, which accounted for 14 per cent of Nepal’s total trade deficit in fiscal 2020-21.

China has restricted issuing visas to Nepali traders; as a result, they were forced to place orders virtually. Many traders have complained of being cheated on quality as they have to place orders virtually, Nepali news portal Pardafas reported.

Further, the freight costs have also risen. As a result, goods have become more expensive causing a significant rise in inflation. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has predicted that higher shipping costs will continue to make goods costlier over the next year as well, the report said.

Inconsistencies in imports from China have not only caused unprecedented monetary losses to Nepali traders, the Nepali citizens living in districts along the northern border, who depend on supplies from China, have also faced a shortage of daily essential products such as food items due to China’s restrictions.

China’s unreliability and underhand trade practices have also raised concerns in Nepal over Chinese investments in the country. The rapid rise in Chinese investments since 2008 has raised concerns that such investments in Nepal cannot be without strategic interests as China would never be able to extract economic returns on its investments in the country, at least in the near term, said the report.

In 2021, China’s share of total FDI in Nepal increased to more than 70 per cent with a commitment of USD 188 million (out of a total FDI of USD 268 million).

At the same time, the track record of Chinese investment in Nepali projects is not good as it is clear from a vast gap between commitment and realization of investment, slow growth in the implementation, cost overruns due to delays and poor feasibility studies and rehabilitation of the people who fear displacement, the report further said citing examples of hydropower projects and industrial park projects being undertaken by Chinese firms.

All these factors have led to increased scepticism against China aided projects in Nepal and Chinese investment together with Chinese trade. There are fears that if delays and cost overruns continue and the China-funded projects are not able to be viable for whatsoever reason, the country would risk falling into a debt trap. (ANI)

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.

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