January 22, 2023
5 mins read

Why Coming presidential elections will be litmus test for Erdogan

Some constitutional experts express doubts if Erdogan can legitimately contest the elections, in the light of article 110 of the Constitution “that a person may be elected as the President of the Republic for two terms at most.”..writes John Solomou

Nicosia [Cyprus] January 23 (ANI): Last week Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signalled that the country’s Presidential and Parliamentary elections scheduled for June would be held on May 14.
This immediately stirred a debate about whether he can legitimately run for office, as the Constitution envisages that the President’s term of office is five years renewable only once, and Erdogan has been President since 2014. However, the big question is not whether he is entitled to be a candidate for President but, after 20 years in power, there is a real possibility that Erdogan may lose.

Repeated polls show that this time the Turkish elections will be tight and Erdogan faces the possibility of being unseated by the so-called “Table of Six” -a six-party opposition alliance led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Erdogan announced his intention to move the elections one month earlier in a speech on January 18 when he said: “Now, we ask for the support of our nation in 2023 by saying, ‘Enough! The decision and the future belong to the nation. In the 100th anniversary of our Republic, we have achieved the goals that we wanted our country and our nation to reach, to a great extent… 2023 is both the symbol of our 20 years of work, as well as the beginning of our new vision, the Century of Turkey. This is what makes the upcoming election important and historic.”

Some constitutional experts express doubts if Erdogan can legitimately contest the elections, in the light of article 110 of the Constitution “that a person may be elected as the President of the Republic for two terms at most.”

However, Article 116 says “If the Assembly decides to renew the elections during the second term of the President of the Republic, he/she may once again be a candidate.”

Erdogan became president for the first time in the presidential elections held in 2014. He later took office as the first president of the new executive presidential system in the elections held in June 2018. Under the new system, a person can be elected president at most two times.

Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag on January 19 claimed that there is no obstacle for Erdogan to be a candidate again, saying: “Our President is a candidate running for the second president of the Presidential Government System and it is his second candidacy. There are no constitutional obstacles.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech in Ankara, Turkey, on May 18, 2022. (Photo by Mustafa Kaya/Xinhua/IANS)

But the question of whether Erdogan has the right to contest the elections or not is a moot point, as it is the Parliament and the Election Council that will approve the new election date and as Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the opposition Republican Party, said that he has no objection if Erdogan stands as a candidate.

What opposition parties are really concerned about is the fact that the election campaign would take place on a highly uneven playing field, given that Erdogan’s party has a near monopoly on public broadcasting and the mass media.

Furthermore, Erdogan’s Executive Presidency has managed to control the judiciary, the Army, the Police and almost all institutions in Turkey and hollowed democracy in Turkey turning it effectively into a “one man’s rule.”

Berk Esen, an international relations expert at Sabanci University in Istanbul, says: “Erdogan has transformed Turkey’s democratic government into a hyper-presidential system, in which parliament is no longer that powerful.”

This view is shared by the mass media, many scholars, journalists, newspapers and magazines in many countries, which express concern at the great power Erdogan exercises on all institutions in Turkey and his harmful influence on Turkish democracy.

Last week’s issue of the British magazine “The Economist” claims that Erdogan as a leader has taken his country “to the brink of disaster,” and adds: “Approaching his third decade in power, he sits in a vast palace snapping orders at courtiers too frightened to tell him when he is wrong. His increasingly eccentric beliefs swiftly become public policy… Mr Erdogan’s behaviour as the election approaches could push what is today a deeply flawed democracy over the edge into a full-blown dictatorship.”

Reacting to the article, Turkey’s Communications Director Fahrettin Altun harshly accused The Economist of making “cheap propaganda” and disinformation on Turkey and wrote on Twitter: “The Economist recycles its intellectually lazy, dull, and purposefully ignorant depiction of Turkiye (Turkey). It seems like they feel obligated to announce the end of Turkish democracy through regurgitating cliches, misinformation and blatant propaganda.”

Speaking to reporters following Friday prayers in Istanbul, Erdogan said: “Does a British magazine determine Turkey’s fate? It is my nation that decides. Whatever my nation says happens in Turkey.”

A big currency crisis, mainly created as a result of Erdogan’s misguided insistence on lowering the interest rates, high inflation which is currently standing at 65 per cent and high unemployment have eroded popular support for AKP and Erdogan, particularly among workers and the lower classes, who a few years ago were their ardent supporters.

President Erdogan in January raised the salaries of public servants by 30 per cent and restored to some extent their purchasing power, but what about people working in the private sector who find that they cannot buy even the basic things they need? So, discontent keeps rising.

For the first time in 20 years, the opposition parties have a chance to remove Erdogan. Last year six opposition parties – The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the right-wing Iyi Party, the Conservative Felicity Party, the Democrat Party (DP), DEVA (Democracy and Progress) Party and the Future (Gelecek) Party- formed a platform called the Table of Six and announced a constitutional package for restoring democracy, the rule of law and a parliamentary system if they win elections in 2023 against President Erdogan.

But they have a chance to win the elections only if they manage to agree and set aside even temporarily the political ambitions of their respective leaders and manage to field a single strong candidate who will be able to convince the Turkish people to vote for him and put an end to the one-man rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (ANI)

ALSO READ: Stage set for earlier elections in Turkey

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.

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