January 5, 2024
1 min read

New AI model to predict Covid-19 variant waves early

The patterns that emerged from this analysis were used to build a Machine Learning-enabled risk assessment model…reports Asian Lite News

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US have developed a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model that can predict early which SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to cause new waves of infection.

Current models used to predict the dynamics of viral transmission do not predict variant-specific spread.

The team led by Retsef Levi from MIT’s Sloan School of Management studied what factors could shape the viral spread based on an analysis of 9 million SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequences collected by the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) from 30 countries, along with data on vaccination rates, infection rates, and other factors.

The findings are published in the journal PNAS Nexus.

The patterns that emerged from this analysis were used to build a Machine Learning-enabled risk assessment model.

The model can detect 72.8 per cent of the variants in each country that will cause at least 1,000 cases per million people in the next three months after an observation period of only one week after detection.

This predictive performance increases to 80.1 per cent after two weeks of observation.

Among the strongest predictors that a variant will become infectious are the early trajectory of the infections caused by the variant, the variant’s spike mutations, and how different the mutations of a new variant are from those of the most dominant variant during the observation period.

“This work provides an analytical framework that leverages multiple data sources, including genetic sequence data and epidemiological data via machine-learning models to provide improved early signals on the spread risk of new SARS-CoV-2 variants,” said the researchers in the study.

While calling for more research, they noted that the modelling approach could potentially be extended to other respiratory viruses such as influenza, avian flu viruses, or other coronaviruses.

ALSO READ-EU lawmakers agree on artificial intelligence laws

Previous Story

POOVU: The Value of Life

Next Story

Nepal, India review bilateral pacts

Latest from -Top News

Indian-American Takes Office as Head of NIH

Born in Kolkata, India, Dr. Bhattacharya earned both his BA and MA degrees in economics from Stanford University, followed by a doctorate in medicine and a PhD in economics from the same

Trump-Putin bhai, bhai

The closer Trump and Putin get Britain, France and other Western countries which, since the end of the Second World War, have seen America as an ally, will have to rethink their

Mali embraces solar power for rural areas  

The border village of Karan and its 3,000 people used to go days without electricity. Now, enough power is available around the clock to run small video gaming centers and boost commercial
Go toTop

Don't Miss

‘Moving Covid shots to India could benefit children’

According to a Hindustan Times report, the UK has administered

‘Trust me this is harder than we think’

On Monday Bhumi informed Instagram that she has tested positive