September 3, 2021
3 mins read

Iran’s Taliban gambit could backfire

This time around, Iran has been very practical in its relations with the Taliban because it saw them as a useful tool to undermine the US in Afghanistan…writes Shahram Akbarzadeh

The Talibans takeover of Afghanistan has led some to draw comparisons with the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. This is not an accurate comparison. The 1979 Revolution was a popular revolt, while the 2021 Taliban victory was a military take over. The Taliban do not have popular support in Afghanistan.

They managed to walk into Kabul because the Afghan armed forces and political establishment had lost the will to fight. And that was the outcome of a growing belief in Afghanistan that Kabul could not withstand the Taliban advance. So self-preservation meant that local leaders simply let the Taliban walk into their cities and settlements.

Although the leadership of the Taliban has learned to make noises not as pungent to the international community as its earlier avatar, the common Talib remains bigoted youth grounded in intolerance and a very conservative interpretation of Islam.

Even if those leaders who were based in Doha talk about tolerance and inclusiveness, the support base remains extremely conservative. This will bear heavily on the future direction of the Taliban and the policies it will adopt. Taliban is essentially a Deobandi Sunni group with the political agenda of imposing Sharia of the Hanafi School. That is an existential problem for Shias.

ALSO READ: Iran vows to downscale nuke activities if US returns to all obligations

In fact, Iran nearly went to war with the Taliban in 1998 when the Taliban killed Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif. This time around, Iran has been very practical in its relations with the Taliban. Iran established ties with the Taliban because it saw them as a useful tool to undermine the US in Afghanistan. And the US decision to withdraw was celebrated as a victory. But this presents difficult questions for Iran. The Taliban has been sectarian in its outlook and deliberately anti-Shia. Iran hopes that its new ties with the Taliban will prevent the revival of an anti-Iran policy.

(Image Source ANI)

The Iranian Supreme Leader has insisted that the Taliban have changed. But these hopes may be misplaced. While the Taliban have made all the right noises about having an inclusive government, there is little evidence that they will remain so ‘flexible’ once all foreign troops are out and international attention shifts away from Afghanistan.

The very clear risk for Iran is that the Taliban will establish close ties with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh was among the handful of states that recognized the Taliban in power in 1996. It is not difficult to see why Riyadh would establish ties with the Taliban again. There is an obvious sectarian affinity between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban. This is a new opportunity for Saudi Arabia to gain some leverage against Iran. The regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia could escalate in a new arena, and Iran would be on the back foot here.

(Shahram Akbarzadeh is a Research Professor of Middle East & Central Asian Politics. He held the prestigious ARC Future Fellowship between 2013-2016. All views expressed are personal.)

ALSO READ: SPECIAL: The Game China Plays With Taliban

ALSO READ: Taliban To Emulate Iran To Form Government

Previous Story

Gulf for Good mark 20th Anniversary

Next Story

Jaishankar to hold bilateral talks during visit Denmark visit

Latest from -Top News

Trump Warns Musk: ‘Close Shop or Go Home’

Trump’s warning on his Truth Social platform late on Tuesday (US time) came amid the feud between him and Musk over the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’….reports Asian Lite News Former US President

India-US Trade Deal Likely This Week

The interim trade deal would be an initial step towards a comprehensive bilateral free trade agreement between Indian and the US….reports Asian Lite News India is expected to finalise an interim trade

One Year Later, Hasina’s Son Raises Red Flag

Hasina’s abrupt exit last August after violent student protests was widely seen as a blow to democracy in the Muslim-majority nation of 170 million….reports Asian Lite News Sajeeb Wazed, son of former

Global South Finds Its Campus in India

The question is no longer if India can attract global talent, but whether it can build the conditions to do so at scale—with care and vision. Done right, India could emerge as

Jaishankar Gets Real on India-US Ties

The EAM underlined the structural drivers of the bilateral relationship, saying, “The trend line over the last 25 years has actually been very strong….reports Asian Lite News External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar
Go toTop

Don't Miss

Let girls study: UNICEF urges Taliban after 1,000 days of school ban

The statement emphasised the far-reaching consequences of the ban, extending

Biden Hits Trump on Law and Order

Biden’s team says such a policy would amount to police