Fitch upgrades India outlook

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The ratings agency expects a robust growth relative to peers to support credit metrics in line with the current rating….reports Asian Lite News

Ratings agency Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on India to stable from negative.

“The Outlook revision reflects our view that downside risks to medium-term growth have diminished due to India’s rapid economic recovery and easing financial sector weaknesses, despite near-term headwinds from the global commodity price shock,” it said in a statement on Friday.

The ratings agency expects a robust growth relative to peers to support credit metrics in line with the current rating.

It expects India’s GDP to grow by 7.8 per cent in FY23.

Reportedly, the ratings agency had lowered the outlook to negative in June 2020 after the imposition of the strict nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

The stringent restrictions on movement and economic activity dragged the economy into a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline in growth.

Further, in the medium-term, the agency said India’s growth outlook is strong as compared to its peers and it expects growth of around 7 per cent between FY24 and FY27.

According to the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s real GDP growth in FY23 is seen at 7.2 per cent, with 16.2 per cent in Q1, 6.2 per cent in Q2, 4.1 in Q3, and 4.0 in Q4, with risks broadly balanced.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee touched a new low of Rs 77.87 per US dollar on Friday, after a prolonged phase of consolidation as inflationary risks have soured.

The rise in crude prices towards three-month highs owing to supply tightness is further accentuating inflation concerns and inflicting damage on the global economy and value of the currency, said Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President – Commodity and Currency Research at Religare Broking.

Besides, the World Bank slashing its global growth forecast to 2.9 per cent as against its previous estimate of 4.1 per cent in January also depreciated the currency, Sachdeva said.

Going ahead, the rupee is expected to depreciate towards the Rs 78.20-mark in the near term and Rs 78.50 in the medium-term perspective.

For fresh cues, inflation data in the US will be a key indicator for the rupee movement.

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