Poll paints bleak picture for Sunak in 2024

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Rishi Sunak and 15 of his Cabinet colleagues could lose their seats in a general election “wipeout” in 2024…reports Asian Lite News

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and 15 of his Cabinet colleagues could lose their seats in a general election “wipeout” in 2024. Senior Tories like Sunak, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, and Health Secretary Steve Barclay are all at risk of losing the election anticipated in 2024, according to the polling data provided to The Independent newspapers.

Only five Cabinet members, Jeremy Hunt, Suella Braverman of Indian descent, Michael Gove, Nadhim Zawawi, and Kemi Badenoch, would remain in office beyond the 2024 election – according to the poll.

Foreign secretary James Cleverly, defence secretary Ben Wallace, business secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt and environment secretary Therese Coffey could also lose their seats, as per the Focaldata polling for Best for Britain.

Labour is on track to win all 10 of the critical “bellwether” seats, or those where voters have regularly supported the winning party in recent years.

The Tories still have an opportunity to make the election close because of the high percentage of undecided voters, according to Naomi Smith. Even if Sunak’s party is polling poorly, research by Best for Britain suggests that Labour’s enormous lead over the Tories may not be as secure as previously believed, the chief executive of Best for Britain said.

Beginning in 2023, Sunak is battling to turn around the prospects of the Conservative Party as the majority of recent surveys show Labour with leads of roughly 20 points. After Sunak replaced Liz Truss in the polls, there was a tiny uptick, but this has now latlined, according to polling analysts.

Sunak made five promises to revive the economy, reduce NHS waiting lists, and “stop the small boats” by the election in 2024 earlier this week in an effort to reignite his premiership. Before Sunak faces his first significant political test in the municipal elections in May, the most recent MRP poll results raise concerns about his leadership. A defeat, according to some Tory party members, might lead to calls for former premier Boris Johnson to run again.

A new analysis shared with The Independent on 10 crucial “bellwether” seats – those who have voted consistently with the winning party in recent decades – shows that Labour is on course to take all 10.

“Sunak’s Cabinet deserves nothing short of a wipeout,” said Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, a group campaigning for internationalist values and for closer ties with the EU. The high proportion of uncertain voters still gives the Tories a chance of making the election a close call, said Smith. Despite the dire polling for Sunak’s party, analysis by Best for Britain has revealed that Labour’s mammoth lead over the Tories could be more fragile than previously thought.

Sunak, 42, is struggling to revive Tory fortunes at the start of 2023, with most recent polls giving Labour leads of around 20 points. Polling experts said a slight poll bounce after Sunak took over from Liz Truss has now “flatlined”, the report said.

Earlier this week Sunak tried to relaunch his premiership by offering five promises to turn around the economy, cut NHS waiting lists and “stop the small boats” by the election in 2024.

But the latest MRP poll findings raise questions about Sunak’s leadership ahead of his first real electoral test at the local elections in May. Some within the Tory party believe a drubbing could see a push for former premier Boris Johnson to return.

A grassroots Tory group made up of Johnson’s allies is set to launch a “Momentum-style” campaign to hand members full power in the selection of candidates.

Many of Johnson’s supporters blame Sunak’s resignation in July last year for sparking the downfall of his government.

The high proportion of uncertain voters still gives the Tories a chance of making the election a close call, saidSmith. Despite the dire polling for Sunak’s party, analysis by Best for Britain has revealed that Labour’s mammoth lead over the Tories could be more fragile than previously thought.

The group’s Wavering Wall report found that the high proportion of wavering voters – those answering “don’t know” in surveys – typically lean heavily to the Conservative Party and could still back Sunak’s party at the next general election.

The multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) polls carried out by Focaldata show Labour is on course to win 517 seats at the next election. But the victory is cut to only 353 seats, a majority of fewer than 60, once the impact of the “don’t know” voters is factored in.

And the new seat-by-seat analysis shows that 12 of the 16 cabinet members on course for defeat at the general election – including Sunak, Raab, Cleverly and Barclay – would cling onto their seats once “don’t know” voters are taken into account.

Only Wallace, work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, transport secretary Mark Harper and Welsh secretary David TC Davies are on course to lose their seats after the “don’t know” voters are factored in.

Sunak is struggling to revive Tory fortunes at the start of 2023, with most recent polls giving Labour leads of around 20 points. Polling experts said a slight poll bounce after Sunak took over from Liz Truss has now “flatlined”.

Earlier this week, Sunak tried to relaunch his premiership by offering five promises to turn around the economy, cut NHS waiting lists and “stop the small boats” by the election in 2024.

But the latest MRP poll findings raise questions about Sunak’s leadership ahead of his first real electoral test at the local elections in May. Some within the Tory party believe a drubbing could see a push for Boris Johnson to return.

A grassroots Tory group made up of Johnson’s allies is set to launch a “Momentum-style” campaign to hand members full power of the selection of candidates.

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