Despite the production boost, the group emphasised that future adjustments remain flexible and could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.
Eight OPEC+ nations have unexpectedly decided to accelerate their oil production increase, announcing a 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) hike in May 2025. The move, which advances their phased plan to unwind recent output cuts, sent oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude dropping over 6% to below $70 a barrel.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman held a virtual meeting on 3 April 2025 to assess market conditions and finalise their output strategy. The decision follows the agreement reached in December 2024 and reaffirmed in March 2025 to gradually reverse the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts introduced earlier. While the May increase was originally set at 135,000 bpd, the group opted to add two additional monthly increments, bringing the total to 411,000 bpd.
OPEC+ justified the move by citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook.” However, the increase comes amid broader economic concerns, including renewed U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. Oil prices, already under pressure from trade policy developments, saw further declines following the OPEC+ announcement.
Despite the production boost, the group emphasised that future adjustments remain flexible and could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. This measured approach aims to stabilise the market while allowing member states to compensate for any overproduction since January 2024. Updated compensation plans must be submitted to the OPEC Secretariat by 15 April 2025.
The latest move is also expected to ease concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran, as Trump’s administration intensifies pressure on Tehran. The U.S. President, who has repeatedly urged OPEC to lower oil prices since his re-election, is reportedly considering a visit to Saudi Arabia next month.
The latest move is also expected to ease concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran, as Trump’s administration intensifies pressure on Tehran.
OPEC+ still has a total of 5.85 million bpd in production cuts in place, including 3.65 million bpd set to continue through 2026. The group will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, with the next scheduled for 5 May 2025 to decide June output levels.
