Facing pressure to support Saudi Arabia in the Iran conflict, Pakistan may escalate tensions with Afghanistan as a diversion while balancing fragile ties with Tehran and Washington, By Vicky Nanjappa
Pakistan is likely to escalate attacks in Afghanistan as the war in Iran rages on. Islamabad has come under immense pressure to join the war in Iran, especially after Saudi Arabia was hit by missile strikes.
Intelligence Bureau officials say that Pakistan is planning a major escalation in Afghanistan so that it can buy time or try to avoid joining the war in Iran. This would act as a major diversionary tactic, and Pakistan could use this as an excuse not to join the war.
Pressure from Saudi defence pact
The pressure stems from the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed on September 17, 2025. The central clause states that any aggression against either country shall be considered as an aggression against both. This wording was modelled on the defence principles, which are similar to NATO’s Article 5.
Pakistan had last month declared that it was in an open war with Afghanistan. Islamabad blames without evidence that the Afghan Taliban is backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
When the Israeli and US forces struck Iran, Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, was attending an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Riyadh. Dar, while speaking at the Senate on March 3, said that Pakistan had personally reminded Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, of Pakistan’s defence obligations to Saudi Arabia.
Officials say that Pakistan never anticipated that it would need to fulfil its obligations. Pakistan clearly did not anticipate that Iran would carry out strikes on several Middle East countries. The strike on Saudi Arabia caught Pakistan off guard, and this resulted in pressure mounting on the leadership.
The official added that Pakistan has come under pressure, and many are reminding the country of the commitment it has towards Saudi Arabia. However, Pakistan is in no mood to join the war at the moment as it does not want to be caught up in the tussle between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan also cannot go against the United States in this war, as it has boasted about how close relations are today. Pakistan even signed a minerals deal with the Donald Trump administration, and this has made matters even more complex.
Afghanistan escalation as diversion
Pakistan has long used attacks on Indian soil as a major diversionary tactic to cover up its own internal problems. A strike on India at the military level is not at all an option this time. Pakistan is already overwhelmed with its internal battles, and outfits such as the TTP and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have only made matters worse for the country.
Another official said that escalating the battle in Afghanistan will come at a cost, but Pakistan would be ready to take that risk. This is a better option for Islamabad when compared to going to war in Iran, the official added. Pakistan is caught in such a difficult situation that it cannot afford to anger Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States, the official added.
If Pakistan decides to escalate the war in Afghanistan, Iran or Saudi Arabia would not interfere. Both countries are caught up in a tough situation themselves. The US too would not say much as the Trump administration has already made it clear that while it would like to interfere, it still respects Pakistan’s right to self-defence.
Security analysts say that they are closely monitoring the situation in Afghanistan, as there are ample inputs of a major escalation by Pakistan, only so that they can use it as a diversionary tactic.
However, the experts add that the escalation in Afghanistan would only be a temporary solution. In the days to come, this tightrope walk for Pakistan will only get trickier and harder.
