Rob Jetten edges ahead of Geert Wilders in a knife-edge Dutch election, but months of coalition talks lie ahead before he can claim the premiership.
The Netherlands looks poised for a generational shift in political leadership after projections placed the centrist D66 party narrowly ahead in one of the tightest general elections in recent Dutch history.
With nearly all votes counted, D66 leader Rob Jetten holds a slender lead of just over 15,000 votes against firebrand populist Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV), according to figures from Dutch news agency ANP cited by France 24. Although a handful of ballots — including overseas postal votes — are still being processed, analysts expect the remaining count to reinforce D66’s advantage, paving the way for Jetten to become the youngest Prime Minister among European Union member states.
Final tallies from postal ballots in The Hague are due by Monday evening, but international voters have historically leaned towards centrist and progressive parties. In the 2023 election, D66 outpaced PVV among postal voters by roughly 3,000 ballots, a pattern Jetten’s allies hope will repeat and solidify his narrow edge.
Yet victory at the ballot box marks only the first stage in what promises to be a complex and drawn-out formation of government. Dutch politics is built on coalition governance, and no party commands enough parliamentary seats to rule alone. Senior MPs will convene on Tuesday to appoint a “scout” tasked with probing potential alliances — an early, procedural step that typically precedes months of negotiation.
The outgoing caretaker premier Dick Schoof, who will remain in office until a new cabinet is in place, suggested the transition may be slow. He remarked that he expected to remain Prime Minister through Christmas — a reminder of how protracted Dutch coalition-building can be.
Even if Jetten secures the formal mandate to lead talks, he faces an intricate parliamentary puzzle. He must assemble a coalition commanding at least 76 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives. Early signals point towards a so-called “grand alliance” spanning ideological boundaries: the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) with 18 MPs, the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) on 22 seats, and the Green/Labour bloc with 20.
However, friction is already evident. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz stated ahead of the vote that cooperation with the Green/Labour alliance “would not work,” favouring a centre-right constellation instead. Meanwhile, Green/Labour is preparing to elect a new leader after the resignation of former EU vice-president Frans Timmermans — a change that could soften partisan boundaries and help unlock talks.
Complicating matters further, nearly all major parties ruled out working with Wilders, whose anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric has long placed him at odds with mainstream Dutch politics. Wilders had previously walked out of a coalition amid tensions over migration policy, and while his party surged in the 2023 election, its momentum faltered in this contest.
Even so, the far right continues to gain ground in the Dutch landscape. The Forum for Democracy (FvD), a nationalist party advocating withdrawal from the EU’s Schengen free-movement zone, more than doubled its seats from three to seven. Wilders has rebuffed the possibility of cooperation with the group, but the combined rise of anti-establishment voices underscores the fragmentation shaping the Dutch political order.
For Jetten, the coming weeks will test his promise of pragmatic centrism and generational renewal. His path to power is open — but fraught with negotiation, compromise and the hard arithmetic of coalition politics. If he succeeds, he will lead the EU’s fifth-largest economy at a moment of shifting European politics, rising nationalism and heightened geopolitical pressures.
