This makes the UK the first nonfounding member welcomed into the CPTPP fold, demonstrating the allure of a grouping that spans the Asia-Pacific region…reports Asian Lite News
The 11 members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership are expected to allow the U.K.’s accession to the free trade bloc this week, taking a step to expand the group to include a European nation.
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, member states are set to give the green light at an online ministerial meeting on Friday. Further processes will then follow to formalize the entry.
This makes the U.K. the first nonfounding member welcomed into the CPTPP fold, demonstrating the allure of a grouping that spans the Asia-Pacific region.
“We are making great progress on the U.K.’s accession to CPTPP, and aim to conclude talks at the earliest opportunity,” a spokesperson for the country’s Business and Trade Department said. “The government is working to ensure that the U.K. joins on terms that work for British business and are in line with domestic priorities.”
The members will next have to face the far more complicated and geopolitically charged task of considering the applications of China and Taiwan.
On its own, the U.K.’s entry is not expected to have much of an economic impact, considering current levels of trade coupled with the distance between the U.K. and most CPTPP members — Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam.
Britain already has bilateral free trade agreements with nine of them, at varying levels of implementation.
For the U.K., “The long-term economic gains from the CPTPP are likely to be limited in comparison to economic losses from leaving the [European Union], as the U.K. government itself predicted,” said Minako Morita-Jaeger, senior research fellow in international trade at the University of Sussex Business School and the U.K. Trade Policy Observatory.
She noted the U.K.’s existing deals with major partners and explained that Japan, Canada, Singapore and Australia cover a large majority of its trade in goods and services with the bloc.
The CPTPP was formed by the 11 countries in 2018 after the U.S. withdrew from what had been known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Any new member wanting to accede must meet strict rules and standards, and all existing members have to unanimously endorse the new entrant.
This framework does promise to further open up some markets for the U.K., with other benefits related to data flows and shared standards. Now that it has the green light, the British government will have to implement any reforms deemed necessary to meet the CPTPP standards within a set period.
David Henig, director of the U.K. Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, reckons the move to join the CPTPP is “more about the politics than economics.”
He suggested that the bloc, which does not currently include any of the world’s top powers, could have an important role to play “at a time when the future of the [World Trade Organization] is under strain from U.S., EU and Chinese actions.”
“This could be an important gathering to consider a response,” he stated.
The British government, too, has emphasized that the true value of joining lies in the ability to influence international structures.
Having left the 14.5 trillion euro ($15.4 trillion) European trading bloc on its doorstep, U.K. officials are also under pressure to fulfill successive prime ministers’ promises that leaving the EU would allow the country to sign major trade deals worldwide. CPTPP countries combined have a population of around 500 million, largely in the growing economies of Asia.
“In March 2021, recognizing the Indo-Pacific as the world’s new economic center of gravity the U.K. set out a policy to “tilt” to the region, updating this recently to promise an “enduring engagement.” Joining the CPTPP has been touted as a key pillar within that framework as London seeks to engage with Asia more deeply in not only trade but also defense and diplomacy.
With the U.K.’s accession settled, the CPTPP members will need to turn their attention to the next set of applicants.
In September 2021, China and Taiwan in quick succession filed formal applications to join the bloc. This could make for some awkward decisions given Beijing’s claims that self-ruled and democratic Taiwan is part of its territory, and its insistence on Taipei’s exclusion from most international forums.
Sophia University’s Kawase said that members will have to face China’s application. “There will need to be an alliance of strong nations to stand up against China, and the U.K. does not fall short in this respect,” he said, adding that Britain’s inclusion could create a “foothold” for connecting the CPTPP to Europe.
“Looking to the future, I think the possibility of EU’s accession to CPTPP or connecting the CPTPP and the EU in some other form should be considered,” he said.
Even if China’s accession process starts, however, experts say it is unlikely to be speedy.
“Existing members have indicated they are in no hurry to expedite future applicants after the U.K. joins, having found the process somewhat more onerous than expected to date,” the U.K. Trade Policy Project’s Henig said.
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