September 14, 2023
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Amid rising gas prices, US inflation soars to 3.7%

The Consumer Price Index, a closely watched inflation gauge, rose 3.7 per cent in August from a year earlier, up from July’s 3.2 per cent rise….reports Asian Lite News

Amid rising gas prices, the US inflation rose to 3.7 per cent, recording an acceleration for the second-straight month, CNN reported on Wednesday.

However, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, continued to slow, CNN reported citing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Consumer Price Index, a closely watched inflation gauge, rose 3.7 per cent in August from a year earlier, up from July’s 3.2 per cent rise.

On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.6 per cent in August, compared with a 0.2 per cent gain in July.

However, the situation is roughly in line with economists’ expectations, CNN reported.

Meanwhile, the core inflation slowed to 4.3 per cent from 4.7 per cent for the 12 months ending in August, an indication that the Federal Reserve’s 11 rate hikes are working their way through the economy.

Monthly core inflation rose by 0.3 per cent in August, picking up significantly for the first time since February.

The inflation report released on Wednesday, likely keeps the Fed on track for a pause in rate hikes next week when central bank officials meet to deliberate monetary policy, according to CNN.

Notably, gas prices were the largest contributor to the CPI’s acceleration in August, accounting for more than half of the increase.

The CPI’s gasoline index jumped 10.6 per cent in August from the prior month, up sharply from the 0.2 per cent gain in July. The overall energy index, which includes gasoline, advanced 5.6 per cent in August from July. Rising shelter costs continued to feed into inflation, CNN reported.

Global oil prices have risen recently as OPEC+ nations cut production and demand soared. A deadly flood in Libya this week disrupted oil exports, which further pushed up prices at the pump.

The national average for regular gasoline stood at USD 3.85 a gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA, the highest level in 10 months. Gasoline prices are highly visible indicators of inflation, so more pain at the pump could also weigh on US consumers’ moods, as per CNN.

But, the economists are not expecting the volatile energy prices to prevent inflation’s slowdown in the months ahead.

“The pass-through effect from energy prices to core inflation is small, relative to the downdraft that we’re seeing from other areas,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN in an interview.

“Firmer energy prices, if sustained, could feed through to the core and make the Fed’s jobs harder in terms of returning inflation back to its 2 per cent target on a sustained basis, but I think we’re going to see that dynamic overwhelmed by the continued unwinding of some of the supply and even demand distortions that we’ve seen since the pandemic,” CNN quoted her as saying. (ANI)

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.

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