Gold and silver continued their bullish run on Monday, scaling new highs amid mounting global uncertainties, heightened geopolitical tensions, and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut.
According to the Indian Bullion Jewellers Association (IBJA), 24-carat gold closed at Rs 104,493 per 10 grams, up Rs 2,105 from the previous close of Rs 102,388. Silver witnessed an even sharper rally, closing at Rs 122,800 per kg, up Rs 5,228 from Rs 117,572.
The rally was broad-based across purity levels. The 22-carat gold rate rose to Rs 95,716 per 10 grams, while 18-carat gold closed at Rs 78,370 per 10 grams. The rise extends the momentum from last week, when gold prices jumped by more than Rs 3,000 and silver by over Rs 3,600, cementing bullion’s position as a preferred safe-haven asset.
“Gold has been in a structural bull run for more than two years now,” said Sandip Raichura, CEO of Retail Broking and Distribution and Director at PL Capital. “This is predicated on the weakness of the dollar index (DXY) and the strengthening trend of de-dollarisation, especially after the incumbent US President (Trump) took over.”
The macroeconomic backdrop also played its part. N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of the Commodity Desk at Ventura, noted that expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its September 16–17 meeting have intensified following the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which came in line with estimates.
The gains were mirrored in futures trading. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the October 3 contract for gold was trading at Rs 1,04,734 per 10 grams at 6.22 p.m., up 0.88 per cent. Internationally, gold rose on Comex to $3,540.2 per ounce, gaining $24 or 0.69 per cent.
“Gold marked an all-time high on Comex, while silver touched record levels domestically and posted its highest point on Comex since 2011,” said Manav Modi, Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Haven buying has been boosted by escalating geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Gaza, tariff escalations, and the growing prospects of a Fed rate cut.”
The sustained demand reflects bullion’s historic role as a shield during times of crisis. Over the past year, gold and silver have delivered impressive gains. Data shows that since January 1, 2024, the price of 24-carat gold has risen from Rs 76,162 to Rs 1,02,388 per 10 grams as of August 31, a jump of Rs 26,226 or 34.43 per cent. Silver has surged from Rs 86,017 to Rs 1,17,572 per kg in the same period, an increase of Rs 31,555 or 36.68 per cent.
However, bullion’s trajectory has not been entirely one-sided. In the week prior to the current rally, gold had slipped by more than Rs 600 per 10 grams, and silver by over Rs 1,000 per kg in the domestic market. The correction was short-lived, with buyers quickly returning to bullion as concerns over tariffs, conflicts, and central bank policies deepened.
Market watchers caution that September could prove pivotal. With the Federal Reserve meeting around the corner, even a minor tweak in policy could significantly impact the outlook for bullion. If the Fed signals a dovish stance and cuts rates, gold could extend its rally further, while a surprise hawkish note might trigger some profit booking.
“Rate expectations remain the key driver,” said a commodity strategist. “If the Fed prioritises growth over inflation, gold will continue to gain as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion falls.”
Meanwhile, retail demand in India—the world’s second-largest gold consumer—remains resilient despite higher prices, supported by upcoming festive and wedding seasons. Jewellers say buyers are viewing gold less as discretionary spending and more as a financial asset, especially amid global economic turbulence.
Silver, too, is benefiting from dual demand, both as a precious metal and as an industrial input in sectors such as solar energy. Analysts point out that silver’s relatively lower price compared to gold makes it attractive for investors seeking exposure to precious metals.
Experts agree that bullion’s current surge is tied to a cocktail of factors—geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and structural shifts in global trade. For investors, the message is clear: gold and silver are once again proving to be reliable hedges in volatile times.
As the world waits for clarity from the Federal Reserve, one thing is certain: bullion remains firmly in the spotlight. With gold breaching Rs 1,04,000 per 10 grams and silver crossing Rs 1,22,000 per kg, the rally underscores the precious metals’ enduring allure as safe-haven investments.
