May 29, 2024
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US cautions UK against censuring Iran over N-program

The move reflects mounting frustration over Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA, which polices nuclear proliferation…reports Asian Lite News

The US has cautioned Britain against censuring Iran over its nuclear programme amid high tensions in the Middle East and with the presidential election in November, US media reported.

European powers, including Britain and France, are believed to be preparing a censuring resolution against Iran at next week’s meeting of the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The move reflects mounting frustration over Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA, which polices nuclear proliferation.

The Biden administration has asked other countries to abstain from the resolution and said it will do the same, the Wall Street Journal reported citing diplomats familiar with the matter.

The decision reflects the White House’s wish to avoid further escalation of tensions with Iran ahead of US presidential elections in November as well as fears that Iran may be more unstable than usual following recent clashes with Israel and the death in a helicopter crash last week of its president, Ebrahim Raisi.

British officials are understood to think Iran’s nuclear programme has never been more advanced, and are deeply concerned about escalation.

The agency’s 35-member board of governors will gather for a quarterly meeting from June 3 to 7. Concern about Iran’s atomic ambitions have grown steadily since 2019 when Donald Trump pulled the US out of a deal offering sanctions relief in exchange for curbs to its nuclear programme.

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60 per cent purity for three years, it is believed. It needs roughly 90 per cent purity to build a weapon.

It has enough uranium to build three nuclear bombs if it was refined further, according to an IAEA yardstick. Joe Biden is keen not to ruffle Iran’s nuclear feathers ahead of a US election in November

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and says all its activities are peaceful. The IAEA counters that no country has enriched to that level without going on to build a bomb.

A senior European diplomat told Reuters last week that the level of Iran’s violations was “unprecedented”.

“There is no slowing down of its programme and there is no real goodwill by Iran to cooperate with the IAEA,” the diplomat said. “All our indicators are flashing red.”

A rift between the US and the “E3” powers of Britain, France and Germany about how to respond has been growing for months.

In November 2022, they all backed an IAEA resolution censuring Iran, but the US cautioned the E3 against a repeat at the last quarterly meeting in March.

Mohammad Mokhber, who took over as acting president on Mr Raisi’s death, addressed parliament in Tehran for the first time on Monday.

Nasser Kanaani, a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry, said Mr Raisi’s death had not changed Iran’s approach to getting US sanctions lifted.

Officials have been citing the US presidential election as a reason for the Biden administration’s reluctance.

But the main argument US officials make is to avoid giving Iran a pretext to respond by escalating its nuclear activities, as it has done in the past.

There have been complications in talks following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash earlier this month.

During talks aimed at improving Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA, Tehran told reporters it would not engage with it until Raisi’s successor is elected on June 28, two diplomats said.

Israel and Iran carried out direct strikes on each other for the first time last month, and Israel has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, eyewitnesses in Gaza said Israeli tanks reached the centre of Rafah earlier today in a move that has sparked global condemnation.

Residents said Israeli forces pounded the city with airstrikes and tank fire, depsite international outcry over an attack on Sunday that sparked a blaze in a tent camp, killing at least 45 Palestinians, more than half of them children, women and the elderly.

Since that strike, at least 26 more people have been killed by Israeli fire in Rafah, officials in the enclave run by Hamas militants said.

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.

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