October 26, 2021
4 mins read

All eyes on Sunak ahead of Budget 2021

Finance minister likely to announce a three-year spending plan with investments in public transport, skills training and other projects to advance Johnson’s plan to “level up” poorer regions of the country, reports Asian Lite News

Finance minister Rishi Sunak will try to show that he is moving on from the Covid-19 pandemic on Wednesday when he announces multi-billion-pound investments to help Prime Minister Boris Johnson meet his spending promises to voters.

But Sunak, who has racked up the biggest ever peacetime budget deficit to combat the coronavirus, will also keep a tight grip on day-to-day spending by many government departments, something that could slow Britain’s still incomplete recovery.

As well as a budget update — which for once is not expected to include emergency stimulus measures — Sunak will announce a three-year spending plan with investments in public transport, skills training and other projects to advance Johnson’s plan to “level up” poorer regions of the country.

At the same time, he will try to burnish the government’s low-carbon credentials before Britain hosts the COP26 climate summit starting next week.

“Today’s budget begins the work of preparing for a new economy post-Covid, an economy fit for a new age of optimism,” Sunak is due to say, according to excerpts of his speech released by the finance ministry.

That Sunak can focus on extra spending in his speech to parliament – expected to start around 1130 GMT – is due in part to a big tax increase for workers and employers announced in September. Companies face an additional tax hike in 2023.

Britain’s economy suffered a near 10% collapse last year after the country was slower than others to shutter its economy to ward off coronavirus contagion, and ended up spending more time in lockdown.

Nonetheless, an upgrade of Britain’s growth forecasts on Wednesday will give the government extra room for manoeuvre.

Bond dealers polled by Reuters expect borrowing this financial year will come in at 190 billion pounds, 44 billion pounds less than the government forecast in March and equivalent to around 8% of gross domestic product.

Sunak, a former Goldman Sachs analyst, has pre-announced higher spending on health, public transport in cities away from London, and skills training as well as the lifting of a freeze on public sector pay.

However, many ministries will face a further squeeze as Sunak sets a new fiscal rule for the government. It is expected to focus on bringing day-to-day spending into balance with tax revenues over a three-year horizon.

Many economists say that target looks achievable and could allow Sunak to cut taxes before for the next election, which is due in 2024 but could come earlier.

As well as a renewed rise in Covid-19 infections in Britain, a big risk for Sunak is that the recent jump in inflation proves to be stubborn than expected, which could push up the government’s debt costs sharply.

Around a quarter of British gilts are indexed to inflation, a higher share than most other rich economies.

A 1-percentage-point rise in interest rates and inflation would cost taxpayers about 25 billion pounds a year, according to government estimates.

That would be equivalent to double the money that Sunak plans to raise with his increase in social security contributions to fund the health service and social care.

Borrowing costs could start to go up as soon as next week when the Bank of England is due to announce its November policy decision against the backdrop of an inflation rate on course to hit 5%, more than double its target.

Retailers warn of pre-Christmas price rises

Meanwhile, British retailers warned on Wednesday of pre-Christmas price rises after they reported the smallest year-on-year decline in the average selling price of goods in their stores since before the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

The British Retail Consortium trade body said shop prices rose by 0.4% on the month in October and were 0.4% lower than a year before, the smallest year-on-year fall since January 2020.

Price rises were led by higher costs for food, which was 0.5% more expensive than a year earlier.

People wearing face masks stand next to Christmas trees in London, Britain, on Dec. 4, 2020. (XinhuaHan Yan)

“It is now clear that the increased costs from labour shortages, supply chain issues and rising commodity prices have started filtering through to the consumer,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said.

Three in five retailers planned to raise prices before Christmas, she added.

The BRC’s shop price index covers a narrower range of spending than the consumer price index targeted by the Bank of England, which touched its highest since 2012 in August at 3.2%.

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.
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