The US is India’s largest trading partner and the bilateral trade between the two nations stood at $128.78 billion in 2023
Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the US has raised expectations about the resumption of some partnerships which were paused during President Joe Biden’s term. This includes the possibility of an India-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
“President Trump’s comeback to power could lead to India-US FTA negotiations (which made no headway during President Biden’s tenure) which will provide both sides with greater market access,” former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla said.
The US is India’s largest trading partner and the bilateral trade between the two nations stood at $128.78 billion in 2023 compared to $119.48 billion in 2022.
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“India has successfully engaged with President Trump in the past and there is a good equation between PM Modi and President Trump. Trump is in favour of ending the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia. This also ties in with our own desire to see an end to this era of conflicts and PM Modi’s efforts in this endeavour,” Shringla added.
Indians legally living in the US are optimistic that their visa issues will be dealt with more fairness now.
India is expected to be a key partner of the US like it was during the previous Trump government. “In the long term, India’s relationship with the US will flourish. If you recall the Indo-Pacific strategy, India played a significant role during the time of the Republican government. The Quad too will be strengthened further,” Taranjit Singh Sandhu, former Ambassador to the US said.
“We are optimistic that the US will support India in its voice against terrorism and increasing radicalisation. The naming of India in human rights reports is likely to be reduced. Also, President Trump a week before the elections had talked about the atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh so there is likely to be some semblance of peace around India’s borders,” said an expert on India-US relations, adding that India is hopeful that the situation in Bangladesh will be re-assessed by the US.”
Despite the recent thaw in relations due to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) patrolling agreement, India and China still have miles to go before restoring mutual trust and normalcy at their militarised boundary. New Delhi, therefore, cannot afford to let its guard down, and the likelihood of President Trump being tougher on China than his predecessor, Joe Biden, could play out in its favour.
However, there are some important caveats to consider. Back when Biden was still in the race, Chinese experts had publicly stated that whoever the winner would be, both candidates — Trump or Biden — were “poison” for China, writes Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, in her piece for American think tank Brookings. Given that a Harris victory was widely considered to mean a continuation of Biden’s policies, the same could have been said of her impact on China too, had she won.
According to Yun, Chinese experts were of the view that while a second Biden term might have brought more stability to bilateral relations, his “competition strategy” had been “quite effective economically and diplomatically” against China.
In comparison, while they saw Trump’s position on US alliances and partnerships as serving China’s strategic agenda in the long run, in the short term, they were of the opinion that Trump’s “unpredictability and his use of maximum pressure” would put China in an “extremely difficult” position. Trump, thus, was viewed as “the less desirable option from China’s perspective”.
No US President before Trump had explicitly framed China as a strategic threat and rival. His actions were seen as a departure from decades of US policy ambiguity when it came to restraining Beijing’s rise. Notably for New Delhi, the Quad grouping, which comprises the US, India, Japan, and Australia, and aims to promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region, was revived when Trump was in office in 2017. However, it should also be noted that Biden elevated the Quad to a leaders’ level format.
The US-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, driven and bolstered in recent times by mutual concerns over an increasingly assertive China, enjoys bipartisan support in the US. Experts and media commentary thus do not foresee a departure from its current trajectory in the foreseeable future. The growing defence ties under this partnership are also unlikely to be affected by Trump’s victory.
The mainstream of the US’ foreign policy establishment views Trump as a “dangerous neo-isolationist”, and there are fears that his second term could see him “dismantle the liberal order” that the US and its allies have built and defended since World War II, writes Charles Kupchan, professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, in his piece for the Foreign Affairs magazine.
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