April 14, 2022
3 mins read

Inflation, Fuel Price Rise Rock London Businesses

London Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s Q1 survey show a substantial majority of London businesses are facing rising fuel and energy costs alongside record high concerns over rising inflation…reports Asian Lite News

London Chamber of Commerce and Industry has published the results of its latest quarterly economic survey, the Capital 500, which seeks to gauge business performance and confidence levels in businesses of various sizes across the capital.

The Q1 survey, which interviewed 502 business leaders between 1 February and 8 March 2022, shows London businesses’ encouraging but fragile recovery from the pandemic has been hit by rising costs and a record increase in concerns over inflation.

There has been little respite for London businesses in terms of their costs, the survey shows. 61% and 69% reported increases in their fuel and energy costs respectively, in the last quarter. These rising cost pressures and the wider implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have hampered the recent rebound in confidence. The share of firms who said they expect an increase in profitability shrank from 46% in Q4 2021, to 42% in Q1 2022.

Meanwhile, a substantial majority (62%) of companies also said they were more concerned about inflation than they had been three months prior – a new Capital 500 record. It is also the fifth consecutive quarter in which the chief concern for London businesses is inflation.

Many companies (42%) are also still expecting prices of their goods and/or services to rise in the next three months, with costs seemingly hurting cashflow. London businesses are more likely to report worsening (27%) than increasing (22%) cashflow, with these figures worsening compared to Q4 2021.

Longer-term business confidence remains at similar levels, with 41% anticipating an increase in turnover – unchanged from Q4 2021. The employment situation also remains fairly positive, with the proportion of firms who said their employment numbers had decreased was 11%, down 3 points on the 14% recorded in Q4 2021.

Domestic demand was also up slightly on the previous survey, as the net balance for domestic sales (the percentage of firms noting an increase in sales minus the percentage noting a decrease) rebounded into positive territory, up 4 points to +3.

“Our latest Capital 500 survey shows that the encouraging but fragile recovery of London businesses from the pandemic is being jeopardised by soaring costs and record high concerns amongst business leaders over rising inflation,” said Richard Burge, Chief Executive of London Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI). “This is playing out against a backdrop of two years of Covid debt, low earnings, low cashflow, and the drawn-out difficulties of Brexit.”

“London’s businesses are resilient and adaptable, but this cannot be taken for granted. The UK’s ability to get through these turbulent times, and the government’s ability to deliver on its stated levelling up ambitions, depend upon a thriving capital. It’s not too late for the government to revisit the policies outlined in the Spring Statement and amend them to better support London businesses and, by extension, the entire UK economy.”

Key findings from the Q1 2022 London Quarterly Economic Survey:

61% and 69% reported increases in their fuel and energy costs respectively.

62% of companies said they were more concerned about inflation than they had been three months prior.

42% of companies are also still expecting rises in prices of their goods and/or services in the next three months.

42% of firms said they expect an increase in profitability, down from 46% in Q4 2021.

The net balance for cashflow (the percentage of firms noting an increase in cashflow minus the percentage noting a decrease) declined 2 points to -5 in Q1 2022.

22% said cashflow had increased in the past three months, down on 25% in Q4 2021.

11% of firms said their employment numbers had decreased, 3 points down on the 14% recorded in Q4 2021.

41% businesses anticipate an increase in turnover, unchanged from Q4 2021, after increases on Q3 2021.

The net balance for domestic sales (the percentage of firms noting an increase in sales minus the percentage noting a decrease) rebounded into positive territory, up 4 percentage points to +3.

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Pakistan Risks Overstretching Itself in Yemen War

Pakistan’s expanding military role in Saudi Arabia amid the Yemen conflict could strain its defence resources and fragile finances…reports Asian Lite News Desk Pakistan’s military involvement in the war in Yemen may prove unsustainable because of mounting financial pressures and competing security demands, according to a new report. Islamabad’s growing military presence in Saudi Arabia risks stretching its defence resources while exposing the country to greater strategic and economic challenges. An article by Andrew Wilson in One World Outlook describes Pakistan’s involvement as a case of “fiscal and strategic overreach”, arguing that the country lacks the financial flexibility to sustain an expanded military commitment. Pakistan’s external finances depend heavily on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, financial support from Gulf countries and remittances from Pakistani workers in the region. The report argues that deeper military involvement in the conflict could place additional pressure on these sources of financial stability. It also warns that deploying troops and military equipment abroad could weaken Pakistan’s capacity to address security challenges along its eastern border and deal with two domestic insurgencies. The move could also draw Islamabad into a conflict it has sought to approach cautiously. A Reuters report in May, citing Pakistani security and government sources, said Islamabad had deployed around 8,000 troops, a squadron of approximately 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighter jets, two drone squadrons and a Chinese HQ-9 air-defence battery to Saudi Arabia. According to those sources, Riyadh was financing the deployment, with Pakistani personnel operating the equipment. The sources also said a confidential agreement contemplated the possibility of deploying up to 80,000 troops. Islamabad has not confirmed those figures, although it has acknowledged its military presence in Saudi Arabia, including the deployment of fighter jets at King Abdulaziz Air Base from April. The One World Outlook article argues that Saudi financial support can cover allowances and operating expenses but cannot easily replace military equipment needed elsewhere or resolve the political and strategic challenges of participating in the Yemen conflict. Pakistan’s defence budget is another concern. For the 2026-27 financial year, the federal government allocated PKR 3 trillion, or approximately $10.8 billion, to defence services. The allocation represents an 18 per cent increase from the original PKR 2.55 trillion provision and amounts to around 2.1 per cent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). Defence spending accounts for approximately 16 per cent of the federal government’s PKR 18.8 trillion expenditure. Military pensions are budgeted separately at PKR 822 billion, while debt servicing costs stand at approximately PKR 8 trillion, more than two-and-a-half times the defence allocation. The report argues that these competing financial obligations leave little room for additional military expenditure without placing further pressure on public finances. Pakistan’s reliance on IMF assistance also limits its fiscal flexibility. The country must meet the conditions attached to the programme, including a primary budget surplus target of 2 per cent of GDP and continued restraint on development spending. According to the article, these requirements make it difficult for Islamabad to finance an additional military commitment without compromising other budgetary priorities. Pakistan’s economic indicators offer limited reassurance. Economic growth for the 2025-26 financial year is estimated at between 3.6 and 3.7 per cent, while inflation reached approximately 10.3 per cent in September following an energy price shock. Foreign exchange reserves stood at around $21.5 billion at the end of September. Although this marks an improvement from the low levels recorded in 2023, the report notes that the reserves cover only a few months of imports. Financial assistance from Gulf partners remains central to Pakistan’s external stability. The article says Islamabad holds approximately $8 billion in Saudi deposits at its central bank. In July, the State Bank of Pakistan said Riyadh had extended the maturity of $5 billion in deposits to December 2028, easing the country’s immediate external financing requirements. A further $3 billion deposit was also extended in the spring. However, the article argues that these arrangements provide temporary relief rather than long-term financial independence, particularly as regional conflict threatens the stability of the Gulf economies on which Pakistan relies. The report concludes that Pakistan faces a difficult balance between supporting Saudi Arabia militarily and preserving the financial and military resources needed to address its domestic and regional challenges.
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